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PlanningWednesday, 03/09/2005, 06:30

Macro-economic targets

The annual GDP growth target in 2001-2005 is 11%, and 13% in 2006-2010. The average rate for 2001-2010 is 12%, lower than the previous projection of 14%.
Macro

Macro-economic targets

1. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth

The annual GDP growth target in 2001-2005 is 11%, and 13% in 2006-2010. The average rate for 2001-2010 is 12%, lower than the previous projection of 14%.

The growth rates have been adjusted to a lower level than the projections. The average growth rate in 2001-2010 of Zone I is projected to be 1.9% a year, compared with the projection of 4%; for Zone II, 12.8% compared with 14.4%; and for Zone III, 11.6% compared with the previous projection of 14%.

GDP GROWTH RATES
(Unit: %)

  

1996-2000

2001-2005

2006-2010

2001-2010

  

Projection

Reality

Projection

Adjustment

Projection

Adjustment

Projection

Adjustment

Total

13

10.2

14.5

11

13.5

13

14

12

Zone I

5.03

1.04

4.1

2

4

1.7

4

1.9

Zone II

16.9

13.2

14.4

13

13.3

12.7

13.8

12.8

Zone III

14

8.4

14.9

9.6

13.9

13.5

14.4

11.6

2. GDP structure

The HCM City�s economic structure from now to 2010 is seen as being composed of services, industry and agriculture. However, the proportion of the service sector to the economy is still small compared with the target as major services, namely finance-banking, insurance, tourism, information technology, and post and telecommunications make up small proportions of the economy. This is a reason for the slow growth of the service sector.

ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
(Unit: %)

  

2000

2005

2010

  

Projection

Reality

Projection

Adjustment

Projection

Adjustment

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

Zone I

1.85

2.2

1.15

1.4

0.74

0.8

Zone II

45.9

44.1

45.73

48.1

45.25

47.5

Zone III

52.25

53.7

53.12

50.5

54.01

51.7

According to the adjustments for 2010, Zone I will account for 0.8%, Zone II 47.5%, and Zone III 51.7%, compared with the previous projections of 0.74%, 45.25% and 54% respectively.

3. Per capita GDP

The city�s per capita GDP is adjusted to be US$1,980 by 2005 and US$3,100 by 2010 compared with the previous projections of US$2,765 and US$4,540 respectively.

4. Growth of export revenue and import spending

The growth of export revenue and import spending in 2001-2010 is adjusted to be a lower level compared with the previous projections. Specifically, the annual growth of import spending is adjusted at 16.5% compared with the projected 19.4%. One of the causes behind the adjustment is that investment, especially foreign investment, has increased at a slow pace.

ANNUAL GROWTH OF IMPORT SPENDING & EXPORT REVENUE
(Unit: %)

  

1991-2000

2001-2005

2006-2010

  

Projection

Reality

Projection

Adjustment

Projection

Adjustment

Export revenue

22

22.4

20

22

20

20

Import spending

24

14.5

21

17

19.4

15

 5. Investment capital

The city�s investment capital in 2001-2010 is forecast at some VND400 trillion compared with the previous projection of VND782 trillion. Specifically, the annual investment capital is expected at VND27 trillion in 2001-2005 and VND53 trillion in 2006-2010. The reason is that the city�s economic growth in 2001-2010 will tend to slow down and the flow of foreign investment capital is forecast not to increase strongly compared with the average figure of the past five years.

The Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR) is increased to 3.7 in 2001-2005 and 3.5 in 2006-2010 compared with the previous projections of 3.2 and 3.3 because of the need to improve the quality of investment to sharpen the competitive edge.

PROJECTIONS ABOUT INVESTMENT CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND ICOR
(Unit: VND billion/year)

  

2001-2005

2006-2010

  

Projection

Adjustment

Projection

Adjustment

  

Scale

Structure

Scale

Structure

Scale

Structure

Scale

Structure

Total

54,954

100

25,350

100

101,475

100

52,500

100

Zone I

148

0.27

303

1.2

163

0.16

400

0.8

Zone II

22,649

41.2

13,310

52.5

41,092

40.5

24,150

45

Zone III

32,175

58.5

11,737

46.3

60,220

59.3

27,950

53.2

ICOR

3.2

3.5

3.3

3.5

 



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