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PlanningWednesday, 03/09/2005, 07:05

Urban and infrastructure development

Population growth: The population of HCM City in 2003 was put at 5.6 million people, lower than the projection by 300,000.
Urban and infrastructure development


Urban and infrastructure development


1. Population and workforce

Population growth: The population of HCM City in 2004 was put at 6.12 million people.

Population:
In the 1996-2000 period, the annual population grew at a higher speed than the projection. The annual general growth is reported at 2.21%, including the natural growth rate of 1.3%, higher than the projection of 1.23% and the mechanical growth rate of 0.82%, lower than the projection of 0.92%.
In its adjusted estimate, the city population is put at 7.1 million by 2010 compared with the projection of 7.2 million people. However, there are changes to the projection of natural and mechanic growth rates.
The general population growth in 2001-2010 is adjusted to 2.46% a year on average, lower than the projected 2.74% (2.77% in 2001-2005 and 2.71% in 2006-2010). The natural growth rate is adjusted to 1.28% a year in 2001-2005 and 1.16% in 2006-2010, higher than the projections of 1.09% and 0.94%. The migration growth rate is 1.18% a year in 2001-2005 and 1.3% in 2006-2010 compared with the projections of 1.68% and 1.77%.
The cause of the adjustments is that the family planning for residential groups other than of civil servants has not achieved the expected goal.
The mechanical growth rate has been lower than the projection as other southern economic centers have developed and attracted a great number of workers. 

HCM CITY POPULATION GROWTH PROJECTION
(Unit: %) 

  

1996-2000

2001-2005

2006-2010

  

Projection

Reality

Projection

Adjustment

Projection

Adjustment

General growth rate

2.15

2.21

2.77

2.46

2.71

2.46

Natural growth rate

1.23

1.39

1.09

1.28

0.94

1.16

Mechanical growth rate

0.92

0.82

1.68

1.18

1.77

1.30

 Workforce:
The workforce in the 1996-2000 period and the adjusted figure of workforce until 2010 are now much lower than the projections. The real figure of 2000 is 4% lower (the projection is of 3,596,000 people and the adjusted figure is of 3,454,000). The figure for 2010 is 2% lower (the projection is for 5,057,000 people and the adjusted 4,962,000).
The adjusted employment rate is 17%-21% lower than the projections and the figure of the later period is lower than the previous. It is because the workforce of 2000 was 2,058,000 while the previous projected number was 2,504,000 (17% lower). Also, the economic growth of 2001-2010 has been adjusted to a lower level than the projection. Consequently, the employment rate fell by 20% by 2005 and by 21% by 2010 compared with the projected figures. The unemployment rate has increased as a result.

LABOR � WORKFORCE
(Unit: 1,000 people)

  

2000

2005

2010

  

Projection

Reality

Projection

Adjustment

Projection

Adjustment

Population scale

5,516

5,214

6,225

6,042

7,230

7,105

Workforce

3,596

3,454

4,344

4,148

5,057

4,962

Employment

2,504

2,237

3,143

2,707

3,878

3,312

Unemployment

292

266

341

193

269

168

Percentage of unemployment (*)

8.12

10.6

7.85

6.7

5.32

4.8

 (*) The unemployment rate is in comparison with the workforce.

2. Land use

Adjustment of the city space in line with the Prime Minister�s Decision 123/1998/QD-TTg about approval of the city�s zoning map until 2020.
Achievements in land use, urban development and infrastructure development in recent times are lower than the targets. The growth of the sectors should be adjusted to satisfy the demand of socio-economic development in the period from now to 2010. Land use should be adjusted until 2010.
The total area of natural land in 2000 is 209,199 hectares, higher than the target by 55 hectares because the HCM City�s southwestern area along the boundary with Long An Province has been stabilized.
The area of land for agriculture, forestry and fisheries in 2000 was 128,760 hectares, higher than the target by 6,816 hectares because the area of the kind of land transferred to residential land is of low use. The figure adjusted for 2005 is 121,235 hectares, higher than the projection by 9,151 hectares, and it is 107,465 hectares by 2010, higher than the projection by 107,465 hectares because the area of residential land and land for specific purposes will not increase as much as the projections.
The total area of land for specific purposes in 2000 is 23,544 hectares, higher than the projection by 2,851 hectares because of a high growth rate. Specifically, the area is reported to have expanded by 4.6% annually in 1996-2000 while the targeted figure was only 2.9%. The total area of land for specific purposes by 2005 is adjusted at 29,184 hectares and 38,184 hectares by 2010, lower than the previous projections by 454 hectares and 604 hectares. The adjustments are feasible, although lower than the previous projections, and in line with the Prime Minister�s decision giving his approval.

LAND USE
(Unit: hectare)

Year

2000 

2005

2010

Land category

Projection

Reality

Projection

Adjustment

Projection

Adjustment

Area of natural land

209,105

209,199

209,105

209,199

209,105

209,199

Land for agriculture-forestry-fisheries production

121,944

128,760

112,084

121,235

102,205

107,465

Land for specific purposes

20,693

23,544

29,638

29,184

38,788

38,184

Residential land

22,478

16,685

26,782

19,438

30,747

25,475

Unused land

43,990

40,210

40,601

39,297

37,365

38,075

 The area of residential land in 2000 is 16,685 hectares, lower than the projection by 5,793 hectares because the new residential land regulation does not take into account of farming land as before. Besides, the development of new urban towns has not been up to the target. The area of residential land is adjusted at 19,438 hectares by 2005, lower than the projection by 7,344 hectares, and 25,475 hectares by 2010, lower than the projection by 11,890 hectares. One of reasons of the adjustments is that more high-rise buildings will be developed, reducing the need for land.

The area of unused land in 2000 was 40,210 hectares, lower than the projection by 3,780 hectares due to transfer to the land for agricultural and fisheries production. The area of unused land is adjusted at 39,297 hectares by 2005, lower than the projection by 1,304 hectares and 38,075 hectares by 2010, higher than the projection by 710 hectares. The cause of adjustments is that unused land is hardly being transferred to the land category for agriculture, forestry and fisheries production or other purposes due to investment limitations.

3. Transport and communications

HCM City will focus on the development of communications network in accordance with the Government-approved master plan by 2010 to tackle urban traffic congestion.
As for road traffic, the ratio of streets to population is aimed at 1 kilometer:1,000 people in the inner-city area and 0.5 kilometer:1,000 people in the remaining areas by 2010.
As for the railway, the city will invest to build an elevated railway from Hoa Hung Station to Bien Hoa City in Dong Nai Province.
As for river waterways, investment will go to upgrading river ports to increase the amount of goods handled from 3.2 million tons to 3.9 million tons a year by 2010.
As for sea communications, the combined capacity of sea ports will be increased from 49 million tons to 55 million tons by 2010.

4. Electricity

The amount of electricity from the grids is forecast at some 12.3 billion kWh by 2005 and 20.6 billion kWh by 2010, lower than the previous target of 23.9 billion kWh. The cause of the adjustments is that the amount of electricity from the grids in 2000 was reported at 6.1 billion kWh, lower than the target of 8 billion kWh.
Due to limited investment capital, the amount of electricity from the grids in the southern region is estimated to increase 15% per year in 2001-2005 and 11% in 2006-2010. Although the growth is higher than the projection by 12.3% and 10.6%, the amount of electricity by 2010 is equivalent only to 86% of the projection. The maximum capacity of the grids is expected to increase to 2,400 MW in 2005 and 4,200 MW in 2010. The loss rate will be reduced to 10% by 2005 and 8% by 2010.

5. Post and telecommunications

The tasks from now to 2010 are to complete construction of the three-level post network and to develop post and telecommunications services. The ratio of telephone to people is aimed at 28.4:100 by 2005 and 35.9:100 by 2010 compared with the previous projections of 25:100 and 30:100 respectively. The development of Internet services is also top priority. The number of Internet service subscribers is estimated at 160,000 by 2005 and 300,000 by 2010. Internet services are not included in the 1996-2010 socio-economic development plan.

6. Housing

The area of housing per capita is targeted to increase to 14.2 square meters by 2010. The total area of housing by 2010 is 103 million square meters. Resettlement of people living in the canal catchments areas in inner-city districts will be completed. Another task is to provide housing for low-income earners. From now to 2010, 30,000 apartments will be built for renting to workers and 40,000 others for civil servants and people of the armed forces.

7. Water supply

The daily demand for water is estimated at 1.8 million cubic meters of water by 2005 and 2.3 million cubic meters by 2010.
By 2005, 90% of the population in old inner-city districts will be guaranteed clean water of 150 liters/person/day, 70% of the population of new inner-city districts with 120 liters/person/day, and 50% of the population in outlying districts with 70 liters/person/day by 2005. The projection is the averaged 180 liters/person/day by 2005.
By 2010, 95% of the population in old inner-city districts will be guaranteed clean water of 180 liters/person/day, 80% of the population of new inner-city districts with 120 liters/person/day, and 60% of the population in outlying districts with 80 liters/person/day by 2005. The projection is 200 liters/person/day. The reason behind low adjustments is limited investment capital.

8. Water drainage

The city will be able to deal with some 1.4 million cubic meters of waste water per day and flooding of inner-city districts by 2005. The target until 2010 is to deal with 2.3 million cubic meters of waste water per day and build two systems for separate drainage of rain water and waste water discharged from households. As well, waste water discharged by households will be treated before flowing into rivers and canals.

9. Environment

The city has set a target to reduce water and air pollution by 20% by 2005 and 50% by 2010. The city�s greenery coverage is to reach 33%-35% by 2010. The greenery coverage of residential and office areas will be 15%-20% and industrial areas 20%-25%. By 2010, the area of parks per capita will be four square meters while the area of forests per capita will be 50-55 square meters and greenery 100-105 square meters.

10. Education

Education will remain the top priority. The education and training sector will be improved to satisfy the demand for human resources for the benefit of socio-economic development. Making primary education compulsory will be continued to prevent re-illiteracy. The aim was to make junior high school education compulsory by 2002. The city has a target to make high school education compulsory in inner-city districts by 2005 and across the city by 2010.

10.1 Pre-school education
The rate of children at the pre-school age going to a kindergarten or nursery school will be increased by the following figures:

  

Unit

2005

2010

Kindergarten (1-2 years old)

%

20

25

Nursery (from 3 years old)

%

75

80

10.2 Goals for primary, junior high school and high school education
Primary school:
Increasing the number of schools to national standards.
The rate of students learning in both the morning and afternoon every day will be raised to 60% by 2005 and 80% by 2010.

Junior high school:
Junior high school education was made compulsory in 2002 for all youth till the age of 17.
School networks will be restructured by 2010 to abolish the situation in which primary and junior high school students or junior high school and high school students have to learn at the same school.

High school:
The rate of students admitted to high schools will be raised to 60% by 2005 and 80% by 2010.
More semi-State or people-founded schools will be opened.

10.3 Vocational training
The rate of students admitted to vocational training school at the age of 18-22 will be increased to 36% by 2005 and 40% by 2010.

10.4 Tertiary and post-graduate education
The rate of students admitted to universities and colleges at the age of 18-22 will be increased to 15%-20% in 2001-2010.
By 2010, 5% of students who graduate from universities are expected to enroll for post-graduate programs and 25% of the number will continue their study to get PhDs.

11. Health

Quality of healthcare services will be improved to be on a par with regional countries. The city is expected to fulfill its role as a hi-tech medical center to support the development of medical systems in the southern region.
All economic sectors are encouraged to invest in the health sector to diversify healthcare services. One of the priorities is to prevent diseases related to industrial development and social evils.
The ratio of doctors to population will be increased from 7.2 per 10,000 in 2000 to 8.2 per 10,000 by 2005 and 8.7 per 10,000 by 2010. There will be more patient beds so that 1.3 to 1.5 patients will share a bed.
The unbalanced situation between the number of doctors and nurses will be improved. More doctors will be sent to grassroots clinics. The city aims to reach the ratio of 0.3-0.35 doctors per patient bed and 0.05-0.06 chemists per patient bed.
The HCM City health sectors will try to attain the following goals from now to 2010:

HEALTH DEVELOPMENT TARGETS IN 2001-2010

Category

Unit

2005

2010

Number of patient beds

Bed

17,320

18,150

Health sector workforce

Person

22,500

27,220

Among them: doctors and dentists

Person

5,200

6,350

Chemists

Person

870

1,100

 Operational hospitals and clinics will be upgraded and furnished with modern equipment. Clinics that cause pollution will be relocated.
Focus will be given to construction of international hospitals and hospitals for infectious diseases in newly-established districts, with a scale of 500 beds.

12. Culture and information

The city will ensure quick information to meet the requirements of production and life activities and implementation of State policies and laws.
Cultural houses and recreational centers will be upgraded. The city will build a 400-hectare historic and cultural complex adjacent to the 390-hectare Thu Duc golf course, and the 320-hectare zoological and botanical garden in District 9. Other projects include recreational centers for teenagers and sports centers in newly-established districts and Binh Chanh and Hoc Mon districts.
Television and radio stations will launch new commercial channels, including pay-TV channels and FM channels, to satisfy the demand for advertising, information and foreign news.

13. Science, technology and environment

The city will implement 12 major programs in line with the Resolution of the 7th HCM City Party Committee Delegates� Conference.
Other targets are to complete computerization in the information systems of State administrative system, economics and telecommunications; to train 2,000 IT experts, to complete information systems for technology-science; and to apply standards in product quality measurements.
Also on the city�s list of priorities are programs designed to reduce industrial pollution and emissions of vehicle gases, to improve waste water drainage and garbage treatment.
The city will also increase the proportion of State investment money earmarked for science and technology to 3%.
The city will invest to build a garbage control system, and call for involvement of the public in garbage control and recycling. Another system to control industrial garbage will be built.
The city will give assistance to speed up relocation of polluting production factories from inner-city districts to four outlying areas.

14. Gymnastics and sports

The rate of population getting regular exercise will be raised to 20% by 2005 and 25% by 2010.
The rate of gymnastics and sports officials holding university degrees is put at 35% by 2005 and 40% by 2010.
The city will invest to build a 460-hectare international sports center in District 2 by 2010.


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